FEDS-ECONOMY IS RECOVERING BY BEING WORSE??? ONLY THE GOVERNMENT THINKS LIKE THIS

The economy shrank at a worse-than-expected 6.1 percent pace at the start of this year as sharp cutbacks by businesses and the biggest drop in U.S. exports in 40 years overwhelmed a rebound in consumer spending, said the Commerce Department.

This negative report was greeted by the market as positive, go figure.

The Commerce Department's report, released Wednesday, dashed hopes that the recession's grip on the country loosened in the first quarter. Economists surveyed expected a 5 percent annualized decline.

Instead, the economy ended up performing nearly as bad as it had in the final three months of last year when it logged the worst slide in a quarter-century, contracting at a 6.3 percent pace. Nervous consumers played a prominent role in that dismal showing as they ratcheted back spending in the face of rising unemployment, falling home values and shrinking nest eggs.

In the first quarter consumers came back to spending, boosting their spending after two straight quarters of reductions. The 2.2 percent growth rate was the strongest in two years. Wow, is that a sign of recovery, or could this be the effect of the shopping done at all the store closings and liquidation sales?

Still, the consumer rebound was swamped by heavy spending cuts in virtually every other area.

Businesses cut spending on home building, commercial construction, equipment and software, and inventories of goods. Sales of U.S. goods to foreign buyers plunged as they retrenched in the face of economic troubles in their own countries. Even the government ( yeah right) trimmed spending. It was the first time that happened since the end of 2005.

The sharp cuts underscore the toll the housing, credit and financial crises -- the worst since the 1930s -- are having on the country. The recession, which began in December 2007, has taken a big bite out of national economic activity and snatched 5.1 million jobs.

As a way to cushion the impact of the downturn, the Federal Reserve has slashed a key bank lending rate to a record low near zero and rolled out a string of radical programs to spur lending. The Fed at the end of its two-day meeting Wednesday is expected to keep its key rate near zero and probably hold it there well into next year.

President Barack Obama is counting on his $787 billion stimulus of tax cuts and increased government spending on big public works projects to help bolster economic activity later this year. The administration also has put forward programs to rescue banks and curb home foreclosures -- big negative forces weighing on the economy.

The weaker-than-expected report had some analysts stuck to predictions that the economy would shrink less in the current April-June period -- at a pace of 1 to 2.5 percent -- as Obama's stimulus begins to take hold. Those analysts also continue to hope the economy would start to grow again in the final quarter of this year.

"The recession was bad in the first quarter but won't be as bad going forward," said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia. "I don't think this lessens the expected pattern that the economy will be entering a recovery by the end of this year."

Now I ask you where is this guy living, his bank just got taken over!

Recent outbreak of the swine flu, which started out in Mexico and has spread to the United States and elsewhere, poses a new potential economic decline danger. The flu might stifle trade and may force consumers to cut back further, those negatives would worsen the recession.

I have not heard from anyone that they as businessmen, expect a robust year or improvement for their business in 2009. A recent survey by a business publication showed that fully 67% of business CFO's expected a lower profit year in 2009, only 13% expected better, and 20% expected the same results.