JOB RECOVERY-WHAT JOB RECOVERY? RUTGERS STUDY PREDICTS SLOW JOBS TILL 2017-GOVERNMENT POLICIES NOT HELPFUL TO STIMULATE JOB GROWTH

Stimulus, swimulus. The recesion is ending-NOT! Realistically, true unemployment is now at 17%!

All the talk of recession ending is confounded by one simple fact: The job market is not recovering. In September, the 22nd month since the recession began, an additional 263,000 jobs were lost, bringing the total number of unemployed to 15.1 million.

The losses were worse than August, when 201,000 jobs were lost, but better than July's 304,000. The unemployment rate rose to 9.8% from 9.7%.

Losses fell across the economy: 64,000 lost jobs in construction, 51,000 lost jobs in manufacturing, 39,000 lost jobs in retail trade and even 53,000 fewer government jobs, as local governments shrink. Though losses have slowed from their pace in the winter, spring and early summer, the outlook is not bright. A survey released this week of the Business Roundtable, an association of CEOs who employ 10 million people, said that despite some optimism about the overall economy, only 13% intended to increase hiring in the next six months. (See "Recovery Stuck in Confidence Trap.")

Some sectors of the economy may finally be stabilizing. "The number of jobs in financial activities, professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and information showed little or no change over the month," according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics that compiles the report. A separate report earlier this week shows that some regions of the country are much closer to stabilization than others. (See "Stars and Jobless Stripes.") But widespread job losses affect every sector of the economy by reducing consumers' spending power, driving down tax revenues and even threatening the nascent recovery in housing. (See "Reasons to Remain Wary of Housing.")

The latest jobs data is likely to continue to stave off a market rally as companies continue to shed jobs to protect their capital. More interesting numbers can be found at SalaryFor.com

Economists had expected the unemployment rate to rise to 9.8%, but had thought job losses would slow to 175,000, thus the report was significantly worse than expected.

The rise of joblessness, always a political problem for the White House, is especially unwelcome news for an administration that predicted its $787 billion stimulus package would halt unemployment at around 8%. Since its enactment, $86 billion has been paid out, and taxes have been lowered by $62 billion as a result of the bill's provisions, but this has been unable to stop job losses.

The headline unemployment rate does not include people who want jobs but have given up looking. Including these people, most of whom surely consider themselves unemployed, the rate rises to 11.1%. The broadest measure reported by the Labor Department also includes people who work part time but want full-time work. This measure, of underemployment, reached a high of 17%.

However, the economy's gross domestic product is likely increasing again, as a report earlier this week said that from April to June, the economy shrank by a less-than-expected 0.8%. In the third quarter, which ended Wednesday, the economy likely grew.

"The only factor that kept unemployment from rising higher was that 571,000 workers dropped out of the labor force," says Heidi Shierholz, an economist with the Economic Policy Institute.

Even more sobering: a report this week from Rutgers University professors James Hughes and Joseph Seneca who noted that, even if the economy suddenly started adding 2,150,000 jobs a year (instead of losing more than 3 million), it would take until 2017 to get the rate all the way back down.

Furthermore, the key to the recovery, just like during the lest depression in the 1930's is JOB GROWTH in the private sector! The depression recovery in the 1930's did not finally start until the start of the Second World War as industry geared up to produce arms for the entire world and finally ended the depression.

This time around, we have almost three times the population to get a job for, and we do not have any planned world wars to produce arms for. Also, government policies are gearing toward job destruction, rather than job creation through unbridled government deficits on the state and federal level as well as planned significant tax increases.

WHAT JOB RECOVERY?

OH, OH, BIG BANKS LOST MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...NO SUPRISE TO THE REALISTIC PUNDITS

U.S. regulators said total losses from large loans at banks and other financial institutions nearly tripled to $53 billion in 2009, due to a deteriorating economic environment and continued weak underwriting standards.

According to an annual report released by the four federal bank-regulatory agencies on Thursday, credit quality deteriorated to record levels this year.

The report said total identified losses of $53.3 billion in 2009 surpassed last year's total of $2.6 billion, and nearly tripled the previous peak in 2002, when losses totaled $19.1 billion.

"While we expected a year-over-year increase in problem assets, given the weak economic environment, declining (commercial real estate) values, and previously weak underwriting, we were surprised by the magnitude of the increase," wrote FBR Capital Markets analyst Scott Valentin in a research note to clients Friday.

Since 2007, banks have been crushed by mounting losses tied to real estate. Rising mortgage defaults since have helped push the U.S. into a recession. While the economic downturn was first pegged to residential mortgage loans, banks and lenders are now having problems with commercial real estate.

The report, called the Shared National Credits Review program, is prepared and jointly released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision. The report defines a "shared national credit" as any loan or formal loan commitment of at least $20 million that was financed by three or more banks.

Total loans across the institutions reviewed in 2009 was $2.9 trillion. The study looked at 8,955 loans given to about 5,900 different borrowers.

The losses are first computed as deductions from the banks' earnings, and then any shortfall is deducted from the banks' equity capital, thus weakening its financial position.

Will the taxpayers have to pony up again????

GOOD NEWS, ONLY 630,000 PEOPLE FILED FOR UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS LAST WEEK!

Finally, good news. We needed some good news.

The government reported that the predicted 670,000 new claims for unemployment were lower than expected last week; instead of 670,000 claims that were predicted, only 630,000 new claims were filed.

Yeah!!!!!!! Finally something to cheer about, or is it?

There were some of the usual "asterisks" attached to the numbers. It is important to first notice that there is an asterisk attached to a number...that means the number may be not as represented...that a condition exists which may render it meaningless, or worse.

In the case of these numbers reported, the asterisk explained that the numbers may have been lower than expected due to a holiday...so less people could file claims.

Then the numbers were further asterisked by words that confused the average person.

Then at the end of the report, the report added that the actual total number of people receiving unemployment benefits could be higher than reported by 1.2 MILLION people, since they are receiving EXTENDED benefits that are not part of the report.

Come on...what is the total number ?

Just give us a number without the asterisks!

The bottom line is that we can expect about 600,000 to 700,000 new unemployed people every week! They will not be the beneficiaries of the $13 weekly tax witholding deduction decrease.

Various pundits and experts are projecting that this year the unemployment rate could get to 8%, even 9% by year end. They must have found an old bong in the basement from their college days.

Are they kidding? How about that rate being reached in the next few months, and then a worsening of the entire cycle ?

These figures are for only those people still being counted as unemployed since they are actually receiving benefits...what about those who are not receiving benefits, or never did but are unemployed?

For instance, someone with a part time job, or two, and he/she loses that job? Not counted.

How about the commission sales person, getting a significant reduction in commissions? Not counted either.

See what I mean? What is the true number ?

The number one politically correct state...California is now over 10% unemployed and going higher.

The government further reported that the "true" number of unemployed at 12.5 million people and that another 8.6 million people were "part time and discouraged", whatever that means. I guess it is another of those asterisks that are never clearly explained or defined.

If these results were factored in, the true unemployment would have been at 14.8%, a record high over the last few decades.

At the current rates of job loss, and calculating the effects of the "stimulus" job killers, and the "Union job creation stimulus bill", let's guess at 15% REAL unemployment by year end as a MINIMUM!

Disaster for the economy, yes, boom for government jobs which are expected to grow by 600,000 during that same time; start applying for those jobs NOW!

Now let's make a Dow Jones Average prediction by year end.

We previously thought 5,500-6,000...now revising that downwards...5,000 or less, due to the specific job killing actions planned by the government, and others yet to come.

So far, the market has lost $12 TRILLION dollars in the last 12 months.

It will lose another $3 TRILLION in the rest of the year, based on the plans by the government as they relate to job non-creation.