GOOD NEWS, ONLY 630,000 PEOPLE FILED FOR UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS LAST WEEK!

Finally, good news. We needed some good news.

The government reported that the predicted 670,000 new claims for unemployment were lower than expected last week; instead of 670,000 claims that were predicted, only 630,000 new claims were filed.

Yeah!!!!!!! Finally something to cheer about, or is it?

There were some of the usual "asterisks" attached to the numbers. It is important to first notice that there is an asterisk attached to a number...that means the number may be not as represented...that a condition exists which may render it meaningless, or worse.

In the case of these numbers reported, the asterisk explained that the numbers may have been lower than expected due to a holiday...so less people could file claims.

Then the numbers were further asterisked by words that confused the average person.

Then at the end of the report, the report added that the actual total number of people receiving unemployment benefits could be higher than reported by 1.2 MILLION people, since they are receiving EXTENDED benefits that are not part of the report.

Come on...what is the total number ?

Just give us a number without the asterisks!

The bottom line is that we can expect about 600,000 to 700,000 new unemployed people every week! They will not be the beneficiaries of the $13 weekly tax witholding deduction decrease.

Various pundits and experts are projecting that this year the unemployment rate could get to 8%, even 9% by year end. They must have found an old bong in the basement from their college days.

Are they kidding? How about that rate being reached in the next few months, and then a worsening of the entire cycle ?

These figures are for only those people still being counted as unemployed since they are actually receiving benefits...what about those who are not receiving benefits, or never did but are unemployed?

For instance, someone with a part time job, or two, and he/she loses that job? Not counted.

How about the commission sales person, getting a significant reduction in commissions? Not counted either.

See what I mean? What is the true number ?

The number one politically correct state...California is now over 10% unemployed and going higher.

The government further reported that the "true" number of unemployed at 12.5 million people and that another 8.6 million people were "part time and discouraged", whatever that means. I guess it is another of those asterisks that are never clearly explained or defined.

If these results were factored in, the true unemployment would have been at 14.8%, a record high over the last few decades.

At the current rates of job loss, and calculating the effects of the "stimulus" job killers, and the "Union job creation stimulus bill", let's guess at 15% REAL unemployment by year end as a MINIMUM!

Disaster for the economy, yes, boom for government jobs which are expected to grow by 600,000 during that same time; start applying for those jobs NOW!

Now let's make a Dow Jones Average prediction by year end.

We previously thought 5,500-6,000...now revising that downwards...5,000 or less, due to the specific job killing actions planned by the government, and others yet to come.

So far, the market has lost $12 TRILLION dollars in the last 12 months.

It will lose another $3 TRILLION in the rest of the year, based on the plans by the government as they relate to job non-creation.

"WE WILL RECOVER"-WHO EXACTLY IS "WE"??

Finally the long anticipated words for America's recovery were uttered by our President..."We will rebuild, we will recover, and the United States of America will emerge stronger then before."

Those were the words of our new President to a joint session of Congress.

Who exactly is the "WE" he is referring to in this speech? It did not come across clearly to me at least.

Maybe he was talking about people I do not know, politicians maybe, or their relatives or people that they all know.....I must have missed something...who is the "WE" again?

I listened intently to the entire speech, since as an employer and business owner, I was very interested in knowing all about the "WE" thing.

I too am eager to see the recovery and the "rebuilding" thing he mentioned. I wanted to feel good and upbeat and I wanted to start to cheer on the President and his proposals to help ME and our country.

I waited....I waited....I waited and I listened. I did not even go to make myself a sandwich so as not to miss any part of what he said.

As I waited, started hearing things that did not make me want to cheer, but rather make me want to throw my shoe at the TV set. "What is he talking about?", I thought to myself.

He wanted to "invest" on my behalf in energy ?

He wanted to "invest" in health-care ?

He wanted to "invest" in alternative energy and conquer the global warming crisis?

These investments, he explained were necessary to ..."restore America's economic strength...".

Huh?

What does that mean ? How are these "investments" going to restore what ?

I kept asking myself how are these "investments" going to impact me ?

No answers were forthcoming and at the end of the speech, I knew nothing more than I heard previously. I wanted to cheer, I was all ready to cheer the recovery, and cheer for our President as his number one cheerleader, but he gave me nothing to cheer about. NOTHING!

I did not want him to invest my money, seeing how well the government has invested it so far such as those great investments in AIG, GM, Chrysler, CITI BANK, FANNIE and FREDDIE, etc....you name it and their investment strategy gives no comfort.

I would not hire them to invest for me based solely on their track record of losing on every investment so far.

Remember, they are mostly lawyers and politicians that do not know the difference between DOW JONES and Bobby Jones, so trusting them to invest for us is probably the dumbest thing that we can do.

Just yesterday at the President's economic forum, Larry Summers was shown falling asleep while attending that meeting (asleep at the switch so to speak).

These apparently are the folks that will be "investing" for us.

I can safely say that none of these investments are going to do anything for me, for my company or for my employees...correct that; the apparent increase in unemployment benefits now mandated to states that accept the stimulus money will give my laid-off employees some more weeks of payments than they could have had previously.

The laid off employees can now wait a little longer for the recovery to kick in, while they collect the unemployment benefits.

They can also marvel at the new electronic health records available at the free clinic (since they can hardly afford the COBRA payments), and watch and wait for fuel to be made from potatoes, swine dung, and bird excrement-the new bio-fuel technologies that billions are allocated for.

Too bad all these technologies have not yet been invented, and none of them will be working at those new technological plants right after their unemployment insurance payments run out.

Oh yes, the final key ingredient of the recovery will be that all possible employers and their management, will be taxed more-that will surely speed up the recovery. Tax the wealthy, that is the secret to the recovery. Tax those last 5%, who pay most of the taxes now...make them pay for the recovery. Everyone else, according to our President, will get a "break".

The top 5% however, will be punished. The US based corporations that sometimes produce almost all its profit abroad, while maintaining a fleeting remnants of their US business, will be punished. High salaries will be punished by mandating lower salaries. there was even a movement in congress to cap all salaries !

So the only "WE" I could gather out of this plan was the part about how my part of the recovery was that I could expect to pay more in taxes, pay more for the services that will be government mandated and also that "health-care reform" and more government regulations (which apparently were not sufficient so far) was next to stimulate all us employers.

I did not see any assistance to my employees, to my business or any hope for improvement in the future, as it stands now. How can there be a recovery when nobody that is capable of creating the recovery is being motivated to do so ?

There is a saying..."I never got a job from a poor person..." So how is this going to work by punishing the job providers?

How exactly is this recovery going to work for the "WE" he keeps talking about?

Maybe WE need a new word here...perhaps such as "very few"; "select"; those in select secret societies"; "those who do not want to work"; "special relatives"; "certain endangered mice varieties in Nancy Pelosi's district"; "sea otters"; "whales"; "polar bears"; "those who can not read contracts for financing $400,000 houses that they can not afford.".

Why can I not be a "WE" that he described? Why am I cursed to be a success in America, and then be punished?

I want my share of the pot taken from those top 5%! I want to be poor, I want to be in "crisis" so that I can get to be part of the "WE". It no longer pays to be "rich" or aspire to be rich, I guess.

I almost forgot, the last part of the speech stated that America will emerge from this "crisis" "stronger than ever before".

How exactly is that supposed to happen, after the employers are discouraged from making money, and if they do they have not the fruits of their labor to look forward to, but rather higher costs, more regulation and taxes??

Oh boy, "....and this is only the start..."said the President.

Frustrated, and Puzzled
New York

STIMULUS, SWIMULUS, OH NO, NOTHING HAPPENS NOW

The government has now spent our money, our kids money and their children's money and their children's money on a STIMULUS plan.

Now mind you that NOBODY knows what it really is, as the drafters have not "read" it, before leaving on world-wide junkets. They voted for it however....and like the dummies that they are, they do not know what is really in it...in its fine print.

One thing for sure though is that we will average $13 a week in that bill just for us, to spend as we see fit.

No government program will stimulate the economy...it will help a few road-building companies, and it will pay some past due Medicaid bills to doctors throughout the states that have not paid their bills.

But it WILL NOT make anyone, in the general population feel stimulated. Correct that, those recipients of SS benefits and disability payment recipients will get about $250....that's just about enough to pay about 15 days worth of heating bills this winter.

The plain fact that our politicians do not understand is that the world is oversupplied by goods, goods made in countries with cheap labor.

These goods are in over-supply, and they compete with domestic produced products.

So, to make this simple, as the economy is stimulated, which goods will you buy...the more expensive domestically produced goods, or the cheaper versions flooding our stores to compete for your stimulus dollars...those $13 weekly dollars you have to spend now?

The government programs that were announced will do absolutely nothing for the economy, and will not stimulate any consumer spending, other than the $13 weekly, which will probably go towards the interest paid on your credit card bills.

Are the people we elected this clueless?

Yes, apparently they are...at least those who voted for the STIMULUS.

Oversupply is a problem. One can boost demand, but what will the stimulated consumers buy?

It is not likely to be a GM car since it is too expensive for people whose FICO scores just tanked, and their home was foreclosed. Count those people out...that is probably about 30 million people, that is fully about a third of all working Americans.

The world can produce 90 million new vehicles annually, it however will produce about 60 million, if that in 2009. Add to that the problem with a lack of financing, and you got nothing stimulating demand.

The resulting lower prices for all types of goods will be great for consumers, since everything will cost less...but these goods will be competing for the consumer dollars with domestic producers and foreign producers including car makers and steel producers, and producers (manufacturers) of just about everything.

Keep in mind that there will be plenty of products, mostly foreign, and they will be demanded to be sold at the lowest possible price.

So how is this going to stimulate anything?

Here is the second part of all this....

The domestic manufacturers will start showing losses, and that in turn will cause their banks to restrict lending to losing companies, which in turn will cause them to lay off employees.

Now multiply this by 13 million businesses in America. If each business only lays off one employee, that's another 13 million unemployed!

Do you think that each business will only lay off 1 employee?

The credit crunch will get worse since the requirements for every well run bank would be to lend to profitable businesses, and therefore they will restrict lending to marginal businesses, and those businesses will have to lay off employees.

Is this becoming clearer? The government is only lending money to businesses that are losers, yet the banks can only lend to businesses that are not losers....so go figure.

Our government is NOT supporting the lending to strong business that can prosper and survive, they are instead lending to the losers, and restricting lending to the marginal businesses or the profitable businesses by advising banks to be careful who THEY lend to.

Go figure...feel stimulated yet ?

Lost in Manhattan