JOB RECOVERY-WHAT JOB RECOVERY? RUTGERS STUDY PREDICTS SLOW JOBS TILL 2017-GOVERNMENT POLICIES NOT HELPFUL TO STIMULATE JOB GROWTH

Stimulus, swimulus. The recesion is ending-NOT! Realistically, true unemployment is now at 17%!

All the talk of recession ending is confounded by one simple fact: The job market is not recovering. In September, the 22nd month since the recession began, an additional 263,000 jobs were lost, bringing the total number of unemployed to 15.1 million.

The losses were worse than August, when 201,000 jobs were lost, but better than July's 304,000. The unemployment rate rose to 9.8% from 9.7%.

Losses fell across the economy: 64,000 lost jobs in construction, 51,000 lost jobs in manufacturing, 39,000 lost jobs in retail trade and even 53,000 fewer government jobs, as local governments shrink. Though losses have slowed from their pace in the winter, spring and early summer, the outlook is not bright. A survey released this week of the Business Roundtable, an association of CEOs who employ 10 million people, said that despite some optimism about the overall economy, only 13% intended to increase hiring in the next six months. (See "Recovery Stuck in Confidence Trap.")

Some sectors of the economy may finally be stabilizing. "The number of jobs in financial activities, professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and information showed little or no change over the month," according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics that compiles the report. A separate report earlier this week shows that some regions of the country are much closer to stabilization than others. (See "Stars and Jobless Stripes.") But widespread job losses affect every sector of the economy by reducing consumers' spending power, driving down tax revenues and even threatening the nascent recovery in housing. (See "Reasons to Remain Wary of Housing.")

The latest jobs data is likely to continue to stave off a market rally as companies continue to shed jobs to protect their capital. More interesting numbers can be found at SalaryFor.com

Economists had expected the unemployment rate to rise to 9.8%, but had thought job losses would slow to 175,000, thus the report was significantly worse than expected.

The rise of joblessness, always a political problem for the White House, is especially unwelcome news for an administration that predicted its $787 billion stimulus package would halt unemployment at around 8%. Since its enactment, $86 billion has been paid out, and taxes have been lowered by $62 billion as a result of the bill's provisions, but this has been unable to stop job losses.

The headline unemployment rate does not include people who want jobs but have given up looking. Including these people, most of whom surely consider themselves unemployed, the rate rises to 11.1%. The broadest measure reported by the Labor Department also includes people who work part time but want full-time work. This measure, of underemployment, reached a high of 17%.

However, the economy's gross domestic product is likely increasing again, as a report earlier this week said that from April to June, the economy shrank by a less-than-expected 0.8%. In the third quarter, which ended Wednesday, the economy likely grew.

"The only factor that kept unemployment from rising higher was that 571,000 workers dropped out of the labor force," says Heidi Shierholz, an economist with the Economic Policy Institute.

Even more sobering: a report this week from Rutgers University professors James Hughes and Joseph Seneca who noted that, even if the economy suddenly started adding 2,150,000 jobs a year (instead of losing more than 3 million), it would take until 2017 to get the rate all the way back down.

Furthermore, the key to the recovery, just like during the lest depression in the 1930's is JOB GROWTH in the private sector! The depression recovery in the 1930's did not finally start until the start of the Second World War as industry geared up to produce arms for the entire world and finally ended the depression.

This time around, we have almost three times the population to get a job for, and we do not have any planned world wars to produce arms for. Also, government policies are gearing toward job destruction, rather than job creation through unbridled government deficits on the state and federal level as well as planned significant tax increases.

WHAT JOB RECOVERY?