Finally, good news. We needed some good news.
The government reported that the predicted 670,000 new claims for unemployment were lower than expected last week; instead of 670,000 claims that were predicted, only 630,000 new claims were filed.
Yeah!!!!!!! Finally something to cheer about, or is it?
There were some of the usual "asterisks" attached to the numbers. It is important to first notice that there is an asterisk attached to a number...that means the number may be not as represented...that a condition exists which may render it meaningless, or worse.
In the case of these numbers reported, the asterisk explained that the numbers may have been lower than expected due to a holiday...so less people could file claims.
Then the numbers were further asterisked by words that confused the average person.
Then at the end of the report, the report added that the actual total number of people receiving unemployment benefits could be higher than reported by 1.2 MILLION people, since they are receiving EXTENDED benefits that are not part of the report.
Come on...what is the total number ?
Just give us a number without the asterisks!
The bottom line is that we can expect about 600,000 to 700,000 new unemployed people every week! They will not be the beneficiaries of the $13 weekly tax witholding deduction decrease.
Various pundits and experts are projecting that this year the unemployment rate could get to 8%, even 9% by year end. They must have found an old bong in the basement from their college days.
Are they kidding? How about that rate being reached in the next few months, and then a worsening of the entire cycle ?
These figures are for only those people still being counted as unemployed since they are actually receiving benefits...what about those who are not receiving benefits, or never did but are unemployed?
For instance, someone with a part time job, or two, and he/she loses that job? Not counted.
How about the commission sales person, getting a significant reduction in commissions? Not counted either.
See what I mean? What is the true number ?
The number one politically correct state...California is now over 10% unemployed and going higher.
The government further reported that the "true" number of unemployed at 12.5 million people and that another 8.6 million people were "part time and discouraged", whatever that means. I guess it is another of those asterisks that are never clearly explained or defined.
If these results were factored in, the true unemployment would have been at 14.8%, a record high over the last few decades.
At the current rates of job loss, and calculating the effects of the "stimulus" job killers, and the "Union job creation stimulus bill", let's guess at 15% REAL unemployment by year end as a MINIMUM!
Disaster for the economy, yes, boom for government jobs which are expected to grow by 600,000 during that same time; start applying for those jobs NOW!
Now let's make a Dow Jones Average prediction by year end.
We previously thought 5,500-6,000...now revising that downwards...5,000 or less, due to the specific job killing actions planned by the government, and others yet to come.
So far, the market has lost $12 TRILLION dollars in the last 12 months.
It will lose another $3 TRILLION in the rest of the year, based on the plans by the government as they relate to job non-creation.
GOOD NEWS, ONLY 630,000 PEOPLE FILED FOR UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS LAST WEEK!
Posted by Sterling Cooper Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 2:00 PM
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