SECOND STIMULUS? ARE OUR POLITICIANS TOTALLY CRAZY OR JUST REALLY, REALLY STUPID? NOTHING WILL IMPROVE UNTIL BUSINESS GETS INCENTIVES
Posted by Sterling Cooper Friday, July 10, 2009 at 9:27 AMWe all are very familiar with the term, "stupid is as stupid does." This adequately describes our congress as it seeks another stimulus to jump start the economy.
This thinking is the dumbest idea yet conceived by the geniuses in Washington.
Government does NOT produce anything, and whatever it does produce, usually means that it takes from somebody's wallet.
There is no possibility that the wild out of control spending of money that the government does not have, financed solely by over-borrowing and causing the largest deficits in the history of the world will cause any stimulation of the economy.
It is a fact that only the private business sector can create true economic growth and then those profits are channeled into consumer purchases. In the USA, our economy is 70% consumer driven, we are a consuming nation...we consume a lot of everything because we have the disposable income to do so.
However, it was the President himself who in the last 6 months has constantly used the words CRISIS, DEPRESSION, WORST RECESSION, WORST ECONOMY, WORST , WORST everything ....so he helped create the panic that ensued.
Like dominoes, the various sectors of the economy fell and impacted each of the other sectors as they fell on each other. For instance going out to restaurants causes them to order less meat or fish or poultry which in turn causes their distributor to order less and that goes all the way back to the producer who produces less cows, chickens or needs to catch less fish, or pays less for all the products.
The government does not have the slightest idea that it is private entrepreneurs and small business that employ people. Big businesses buy from small suppliers, and the small suppliers are important to them.
The stimulus funds will not be impacting in any meaningful way the small or medium employer. In fact the opposite is occurring as small business profits are being threatened by every means possible through planned and announced taxes, or onerous requirements for everything ranging from mandatory health care to electricity usage.
Dealing with private businesses and business owners for over 30 years, this is the first time that business owners feel that the future is uncertain. Nobody wants to make any large commitments to acquire new machinery or to make long term plans. There are no plans to hire any new employees, and those who quit are not being replaced.
This is not how business wants to think.
In high tax states like California, Illinois and New York (which are technically bankrupt as States), the combined taxes paid by a higher income businessman could reach or even exceed 65%-70%, thus leaving little to invest in continuing the business. The myriad of taxes beyond the federal and state and local income taxes range include onerous property taxes, additional employee taxes, unemployment taxes, inventory taxes, license taxes, permits, fuel taxes, and on and on.
Nobody wants to start a business if only 30% of its profits will be retained by the hard working owner, with the government which realistically provides nothing in return takes 70%.
The stimulus dollars are not going to help the small business. Building reads or making federal buildings energy efficient will not help employ more people, and even it that does have the desired effect, what happens when the money is spent-unemployment for those people?
In looking an an example of such government largess as the USA is now experiencing, it is best to compare the present policy to that of Japan in the last decade. This identical policy, but on a smaller scale caused a recession to linger for a decade.
This is no small recession. These current events are no small and passing events which will miraculously improve the economy and it will magically again pop up.
The government is to blame as it was for the start of the crisis. The government itself issued a report that said the housing bubble and crash was caused by the government. Their policies which allowed weak borrowers to buy homes that they could not afford precipitated the crisis. It was not caused by greedy businesses or brokers. The government was more than happy to provide the guarantees of shaky debt of FANNIE and FREDDIE.
More regulation will not be the cure for anything, we have plenty of regulators and commissions and investigative agencies. We have directors and assistant directors, and oversight boards of every type.
The president's popularity is plummeting since the quick fixes he had planned though the incredible deficit spending are not making any dents in the economy.
The stock market has no real reason to go up-why would it is its stock components are showing earnings weakness for the future. The stock market decline will cause a further loss of wealth, and thus put more pressure on consumers to spend less, since they have less wealth to spend.
Consumers are not spending, they are saving!
Bank deposits in the last 8 months have increased by $1 trillion dollars. Consumers did not spend...after all the president accused us of spending too much, but then HE spends too much on our behalf. Mixed signals at best, but then again we are dealing with the first president who never had a job in the private sector, as such.
FORGET THE SECOND STIMULUS, TRY A TAX BREAK. Realistically, this administration has no idea of such a cure, it will continue to try and cover its deficits by greater taxes. Do not expect any economic recovery, just more misery, and more unemployment with a prediction now easily going to 11%-12% by year end and worse yet in 2010 as the domino effect takes hold.
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